These are the 4 topics that dominated the private capital discussions:
1. The gridlock in private equity
There is a serious lack of DPI in the market. Exits are sluggish because buyers and sellers
cannot agree on valuations. There was alignment on several panels that PE returns are
trending down sustainably, from the previous low to mid 20s to the low teens.
Private equity has matured, and there is too much capital chasing the same assets.
2. The growing risk of a crisis in private credit
Capital has been deployed quickly and potentially with a lack in discipline. When funds raise
too much money, the pressure to deploy leads to a lack of quality in underwriting. The market
is starting to feel the consequences of that.
3. The fear that AI will disrupt software businesses
A major topic at the conference. The concern is that AI will make existing SaaS businesses
obsolete.
We have to take these concerns seriously. It is important to distinguish between hype and true
structural changes. We are just at the very beginning of figuring out how to actually use this
technology. Just as it took years after the internet arrived to find viable business models, the
same will apply to AI. The fear is real, but it is premature.
4. Retail investors are now exposed to private markets
The large PE and PD firms have been pushing their products into retail channels, 401(k)
plans in the US, and pension-linked vehicles across Europe. Ordinary people are investing
part of their retirement in private market funds.
These four trends are shaping the environment we operate in, and exactly why I believe the
window for royalty investing as a new and largely uncorrelated asset class is opening wider.